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Re: 1873 Carbines

Posted by Dick Hosmer on Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 10:00 a.m., in response to Re: 1873 Carbines, posted by Michael H. Collins on Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 1:05 a.m.

All 1st Model carbines are under 50,000. That's (roughly) 50 1K "blocks" of numbers. Some have WAY more hits than others, representing the production runs. Rifles and carbines were not assembled completely at random - basically, the intent was to make only one or the other at any given time. But, for many reasons, there was some "overlap", and, our crystal ball is still quite cloudy at this far remove.

What IS totally random is the way that numbers are discovered. The sampling rate cannot be uniform over every "block", so the fact that few numbers show in a given area is not always a sure indication that no legitimate carbines bear those numbers - but it does raise a BIG flag. I look a LOT closer at a 7xxx, than I do at a 16xxx or a 33xxx, for example. We have the quarterly reports, but receivers weren't used in strict order, so it's NOT an exact science, and difficult to explain without looking at a graph, where the corellation of known totals vs. recorded numbers becomes clearer. I plan to explain this more fully in the book.


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